I really like the match up here as the Rays are 2-8 in their last 10 meetings with the Orioles and 17-36 in their last 53 overall on the road as an under dog. Two lefties go at it today with Erik Bedard taking on Wei-Yen Chen. I believe Chen is the better pitcher and that Baltimore has the greater odds of scoring runs against a lefty when you factor in the fact that they are 8th in OPS vs. LHP compared with Tampa who is 22nd and scoring less than 3 runs overall on the road vs. LHP and overall. Baltimore is 7th in OPS over the last 7 days due to the fact that Nelson Cruz has heated up Cruz among Chris Davis and Adam Jones are 17-46 against Bedard as Bedard has not had success against the Orioles at all. Orioles are also hitting .292 with 5.28 runs per 9 over their last 10 games vs. LHP.
Chen has been solid pitcher 3.31 ERA at home 2.79 over his last 3 starts and he's only given up more than 3 ER vs. the Rays 1 time over his last 10 starts as he's held them to a .236 average and a .680 OPS over 140 AB compared with Bedard who in 121 AB has allowed an .869 OPS vs. the Orioles. Orioles also have the advantage in the bullpen right now and have sported a 1.59 ERA over their last 10 overall. Chen has been even better at home posting a 2.63 ERA in his last 4 home starts dating back to 2012 against the Rays. I expect the Rays to struggle again here tonight to score runs which has been the theme for them all year long on the road.
